Argentines likely to keep Cristina - and the status quo.

Opinion polls show strong support for Cristina Kirchner's re-election bid in 2011. The sudden death of her husband, former president Nestor Kirchner, has contributed to strengthen the public opinion image of Argentine president Cristina who is now seen as the favorite candidate for next year's general election.

The poll also showed that 43.2% of interviews are convinced that Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will run for re-election following the death of her husband who was considered the ruling coalition's most probable candidate for next year's presidential ballot.

The Kirchners' confrontations with the cattle and beef industries began in about 2005 and did not endear them to most export-related commodity industries, and has been one of the factors that has prevented Argentina from returning fully to international markets, or providing the setting to attract investors to Argentina.

Argentine beef farmers warn of continuing deteriorating conditions for agriculture and livestock. The combination of policies from the Argentine presidential Kirchner couple and scarce rainfall have had devastating consequences for agriculture and livestock breeding, claims Hugo Luis Biolcati president of the Argentine Rural Society, SRA, the country's strongest farmers' lobby.

"Argentina's cattle herd has lost 10 million head which means beef exports in 2010 will be half of those last year," and all this is happening in a context of closure of abattoirs, loss of jobs and higher prices for consumers," says Biolcati.

"The reconstruction of these painful results will take years, but to begin with the process we need to have a clear horizon: opening of exports and an end to all interventions in domestic markets," explains Biolcati. "There doesn't seem to be political will to make things function: these farmers have been through extraordinary circumstances and need extraordinary solutions."

Beef exports to the U.S. lowest in decades.

Australian beef shipments to the United States have fallen to their second lowest volume in more than 20 years. October figures show the U.S. has now dropped from second to fourth largest export destination for Australian beef.

The US has been surpassed by both Russia and Korea as larger markets by volume. Meat and Livestock Australia chief economist Tim McRae says he can't remember the U.S. taking such a small portion of Australian beef.

"The Australian dollar (relative to the U.S. dollar) is making things very tough for Australian exporters into the US," he says. "And really, the second reason is you've got good competition and good demand from other markets like Russia and Indonesia and some South-East Asian markets, which, when the sums are done, are just as lucrative to send beef to."

Exports for October to the U.S. totaled 8,951 metric tons, 45% below the same period last year and the lowest monthly total since January 1996. Australian exporters continue to hear reports from the U.S. market indicating a shortage of imported beef, and although imported beef prices in the market are well above last year's levels (in US$/lb terms).

Dilma already being lobbied to prop up the Real.

The Brazilian Confederation of Industry, CNI, is strongly lobbying president-elect Sra. Dilma Rousseff who takes office next January first to adopt additional measures to help contain the strong appreciation of the Real vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar. CNI president Robson Braga last week held a meeting with foreign correspondents and expressed Brazil's export sector concern with the strong value of the local currency, which between September and October soared to its highest in the last two years having reached 1.7 Real to the U.S. dollar.

"It's hard to establish an ideal price for the export-dollar, but different manufacturing sectors suggest anywhere between 2 and 2.2 Real to the U.S. dollar," says Braga who underlined that measures so far imposed by the current administration of president Lula da Silva still have to convince exporters.

The Brazilian Real has appreciated by more than 30% against the U.S. dollar since March 2009.

"This is making Brazilian exports uncompetitive," explains Braga. "It is also leading to the problem of de-industrialization, by which Brazilian manufacturers are undermined by cheap imports."

Meanwhile, Joesley Mendonca Batista, the head of JBS, the world's largest meat processor, has welcomed the weaker dollar, even as allegations of deliberate weakening of the currency strained a meeting of global leaders. Batisa says the continuation of a weak U.S. dollar consolidates the U.S. as a production platform, from which the Brazilian-based group intended to ramp up as an export base.

"We have seen substantial increases in our exports from there across all our proteins," says Batista, who has led JBS on an acquisition drive in the U.S., notably through last year's rescue of bankrupt poultry giant Pilgrim's Pride. He adds that plans to float the U.S. business, which were postponed twice this year, may be reheated in the second half of next year.

Batista says JBS now earns more than twice as much through its U.S. operations as its South American ones. And, he adds that international trade in meat was "taking on a new dimension" as demand ramps up in countries with limited ability to expand their own protein production.

"Our customer base in regions such as the Middle East is growing by the day," he says. "Almost one-third of our revenues now come from exports, and we see this as a consistent trend."

Export growth had been particularly strong in the U.S. beef and pork division, where they had grown by more than 6% quarter-on-quarter, while falling in South America, where the strength of the Real has held back competitiveness.

Animal welfare issues on the front burner.

Animal welfare is increasingly becoming more of an issue in the Canadian agriculture industry. Tougher transporting laws are resulting in hefty fines to truckers if an animal goes down in transit. An animal that is shipped to a packing plant and condemned there can cost the auction market or producer $250 to $300. Auction markets and slaughter plants are refusing cattle with cancer eye or that are thin or arthritic.

New Canadian animal welfare requirements are expected in slaughter plants by 2013. At the moment there is not a federal humane slaughter code of practice. With a new set of guidelines and written records, some of the cruelty charges can be better addressed. The changes are going to be tested in four plants for about three to four months and one of the pilot projects will include a horse slaughter facility. Following the pilot, officials will assess where amendments are needed before a full program is rolled out for all the species

U.S. giving the Irish a run for their money.

Beef from the U.S. continues to increase its focus on the European market with exports for the first eight months of 2010 reaching 14,000 metric tons, a rise of more than 80% through the same period in 2009, according to Cecilia Ruiz, manager, Bord Bia Madrid.

A central part of this growth has been a number of marketing initiatives aimed at raising the profile of Angus beef from the U.S.

The U.S. Meat Export Federation in conjunction with Giraudi International Trading have embarked on an American Black Angus (supplied by Creekstone Farms & PM Beef) marketing campaign, a product that is already being sold in 18 European markets. The increase of 20,000 metric tons in the preferential quota for American beef to supply the European market in 2009 has resulted in a consistent rise in shipments.

American beef (via IBP) and "American Black Angus" beef have already been spotted at wholesale level, but in very small volumes. The labels of the American Black Angus are listed as pure-bred animals, fed a corn- based diet for 120-140 days, and the use of carcass electrical stimulation to enhance tenderness.

Even though overall volume is not huge, this development the Irish beef industry sees this as a challenge to continue to promote its unique product offering in this area, which it has being doing successfully in a number of European markets over recent years.