A key factor in evaluating market risk for fed cattle is when yearling cattle are placed on feed with a breakeven above the current fed cattle market. When this occurs in the first five months of the year (as it has this year) the cattle have less than a 20% probability of being profitable (assuming no risk management). This data should be respected (especially in light of record high purchase prices and breakevens) and serious consideration should be given to some form of risk management for summer fed cattle marketings.